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Original title: US heavyweight data "not heavy enough" US dollar pressured gold bulls eager to try
FX168 Financial News (Hong Kong) News International spot gold rebounded slightly after the release of a wave of data in the United States on Thursday (December 22), the US market hit a maximum of 1133.99 US dollars / ounce. The US data released on Thursday is mixed. Among the three heavyweight data, the US gross domestic product (GDP) final value annualized rate increased by 3.5% in the third quarter, the highest since the third quarter of 2014, expected 3.3%; the United States on December 17th, the beginning of the week, the unemployment benefits The number of people increased by 21,000 to 275,000, a record high of 6 months, the previous value of 254,000; the US monthly durable goods orders fell 4.6% in November, the biggest decline since August 2014. The announcement of the data has formed a certain pressure on the US dollar, and gold has also taken a chance to rebound.
The US dollar fell back on Thursday, and as of press time, the US dollar index fell 0.1% to 102.95 points. US stocks fell on Thursday, the Dow fell 0.18% to 19905.89 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.22% to 2260.23 points; the Nasdaq fell 0.34% to 5452.85 points. Crude oil rose on Thursday, the US oil index rose 0.76% to $52.89 per barrel; the oil index rose 0.9% to $54.95 per barrel.
But the rebound in gold on Thursday still can't change the current weakening of the gold price, coupled with the lightness of the year-end holiday, so analysts said that gold's current position is neutral, the next support level will be $1,123 per ounce. In the region, market attention is still focused on the Fed’s hawkish signal, which is to raise interest rates three times in 2017. The market also expects gold to continue to be under pressure, supported by the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations. Investors' current interest in gold is also continuing to decline. The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR continued to lighten up on Wednesday, reducing for 29 consecutive days, which is the longest duration of lightening in 2004. SPDR positions have been reduced by more than 12% since November. Analysts said that technically gold will be consolidating between $1121-1137/oz, and a downward or upward breakout will guide the next step. What is the GDP, durable goods, and initial report? Three pictures tell you the answer...
One of the most heavy nights before the Christmas holiday, the super-economic data rushed into shock--the US third-quarter GDP, US durable goods orders, and US initial jobless claims were released!
What happened to the US economy after Trump won the election? The economic data released tonight may be one of two.
1. US third quarter GDP
According to data released by the US Department of Commerce, the final quarterly rate of gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of the United States increased by 3.5%, the highest since the third quarter of 2014, and is expected to be 3.3%.
(Source: FX168 Financial Network, Zero Hedge)
After the data came out, Reuters commented that the US real GDP in the third quarter was revised and better than expected, recording the best performance in the third quarter of 2014, mainly driven by strong consumer spending and rising soybean exports; It was also boosted by commercial investment in infrastructure and intellectual property products, further indicating that the Fed’s interest rate hike last week supported the solid foundation of the economy.
2. US initial jobless claims report last week
According to data released by the US Department of Labor, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the US on December 17 increased by 21,000 to 275,000, a record high in six months, with a previous value of 254,000.
Some market participants pointed out that despite the sharp increase last week, the number of US initial jobless claims was below the threshold of 300,000 for 94 consecutive weeks, the longest continuous cycle since 1970, indicating that the labor market is at or near full employment.
However, financial blogger Zero hedge wrote that compared with the same period last year, the number of jobless claims rose last week, the largest since May this year. As can be seen from the chart below, after the US election, the number of initial jobless claims has been rising.
(Source: FX168 Financial Network, Zero Hedge)
3, the US durable goods orders
The US Commerce Department also said in a report on Thursday that the US monthly durable goods orders fell 4.6% in November, the biggest drop since August 2014...
(Source: FX168 Financial Network, Zero Hedge)
The financial blog Zero hedge wrote that if the Boeing aircraft orders fell sharply in August 2014, the durable flat orders in November fell the most since the summer of 2013. Although Trump was elected, the market expected the economic recovery to regain prosperity, but today's industrial output data is disappointing.
US personal consumption expenditure in November is less than expected, indicating that the US economy has slowed in the fourth quarter
According to data from the US Department of Commerce (DOC) on Thursday (December 22), the monthly rate of personal spending in the United States in November was less than expected, as household income still maintained the decline in the past nine months, meaning that the US economy has a fourth quarter. Slow down.
Detailed data show that US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) in November increased by 0.2% from the previous month, estimated to increase by 0.3%, and personal consumption expenditure in October was revised up by 0.4%.
(US personal consumption expenditure monthly rate chart source: FX168 financial network)
The data also showed that personal income in November was flat, in line with the expected increase of 0.3%, and a 0.5% increase in October. As income growth was less than expenditure growth, the savings rate fell to 5.5% in November and 5.7% in October.
The US Department of Commerce also said in another report today that the US core PCE price index rose by 1.6% in November, while the previous value was revised up by 1.8%. The monthly core PCE price index was flat in October, with the previous value increasing by 0.1%.
More data shows that the actual personal consumption expenditure in the United States in November increased by 0.1% from the previous month, and in October it also increased by 0.1%.
Outlook outlook
Carlo Alberto de Casa, principal analyst at ActivTrades, said that “close to the end of the year, traders positioned gold as neutral, and the next support would be $1,123 per ounce. Focus is still on the Fed’s hawkish signal. That is to raise interest rates three times in 2017."
Hong Kong Lee Cheong gold dealer Ronald Leung believes that "the dollar is very strong and gold will be under pressure. With Trump becoming the president of the United States, the market will pay attention to his policy changes."
Reuters commodity technology analyst Wang Tao said that gold will be consolidating between $1121-1137/oz, and fleeing the area will hint at the direction.
Rohit Savant, research director at CPM Group, expects gold supply to continue to rise in the next 2-3 years. The reason is that gold hit a record high in 2011, causing a development boom. Although the price went back and forth, the company continued to produce to recover the investment cost.
In 2013, gold fell below 1200 and development was hit hard.
Savant said that the price decline since 2013 will not begin to have a negative impact on production until 2019.
The fall in gold has caused producers to reduce their investment, and banks are more cautious about financing mining companies.
Savant expects gold production in 2016 to be around 97.2 million ounces and will rise to 9,870 ounces in 2017 and further to 9,960 tons in 2018.
However, he said that after 2019, production will drop sharply for about 8-9 years.
Oliver Heathman, head of mining research at Metals Focus, shares the same view. He predicts that production will enter a bottleneck in 2016-2018 and then enter a long-term down cycle.
At 00:20 Beijing time, spot gold reported $1131.70 per ounce, up $0.40, or 0.04%.
(Spot gold daily chart source: FX168 financial network)
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