Rising prices may postpone India's cotton exports

India's cotton industry officials have indicated that with a steady decline in domestic cotton stocks and a weak arrival of new cotton, the country may delay its cotton exports by two weeks, pushing the start date to mid-October. This potential delay could trigger a surge in global cotton prices. As the world's second-largest cotton producer, India had planned to export 5.5 million bales during the 2010-11 season, which begins on October 1. Earlier this month, India postponed the start of its cotton export registration from September 15 to October 1, as textile companies expressed concerns over rising domestic prices. On Tuesday, officials from the Ministry of Agriculture and Textile will meet to finalize the export quota for the upcoming season. If the decision allows for exports, local textile mills and exporters are expected to compete fiercely for the limited cotton supply, further driving up prices. On Saturday, the price of Shangkar-6, one of the most commonly used cotton varieties in India, reached 37,700 rupees (approximately $837.8) per candy (356 kg), marking a 68% year-on-year increase. Earlier this month, the price hit a record high of 38,500 rupees. Meanwhile, New York cotton futures climbed to a 15-year high last week, fueled by speculation and increased purchases from textile mills. Analysts believe that speculative funds are a major driver behind the price surge. They also anticipate further price increases if adverse weather conditions persist in key cotton-consuming countries like China and Pakistan. This year, around 60% of India’s cotton exports go to China, the world's largest cotton consumer. The Indian Cotton Advisory Committee has projected that India will hold 4.51 million bales of cotton at the start of the 2010-11 season, a significant drop of 43% compared to the previous year. This tightening supply situation is likely to intensify market pressures and keep prices under upward pressure in the coming months.

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